Melikishvili Street · Modeling desk · Batumi 6000
From the sixth-floor rooms
Season, stock, and the next ninety days
We sit with the books a house already keeps — occupancy sheets, warehouse counts, till tapes — and draw the months ahead so a decision can be taken before the weather, or the border traffic, turns.
Modelmatrixpoint Analytics is a small modeling desk on Melikishvili Street. The work is predictive business modeling and the charts that make a forecast speak in a room: occupancy, stock, cash, and the ugly middle where a plan meets a season.
We do not sell a login. A visitor commissions an engagement, sits a scoping hour, and leaves with a written model, a set of scenarios, and a pack printed so a non-analyst director can hold it.
If you already know the decision — hire, hold the kitchen, buy the extra container, wait — file a brief. If you only know the unease, that is enough to start.
On the books this season
Work a visitor can actually commission
Predictive business modeling
A multi-week build of the months ahead from the books you already keep, ending in a written model, three scenarios, and a board pack a director can hold.
Chart and board-pack commissions
A set of drawings and a short pack for a meeting that already has a date: occupancy, stock, cash, or a variance table a director can read across the table.
Seasonal forecast studies
A bounded study of one season — summer on the boulevard, New Year in the hills, a harvest, a border-trade window — with a demand curve and a staffing or stock implication.
Model review
A cold second reading of a forecast or spreadsheet already in use: where it is honest, where it leans, and what a director should not take into a bank meeting.
A page from the files
The wet July that was not a disaster
A forty-room house on the boulevard came in June with last year’s August treated as destiny. We rebuilt the occupancy curve from walk-in mix, group cancellations, and the rain days Adjara actually had. The pack did not promise a full house. It named the week the kitchen could stand a closed wing, and the week it could not. They kept the second breakfast cook and let two agency rooms go. August still paid the loan.Spoken after the pack went out
What a client still remembers
They made us bring the cancelled bus tours into the same table as the walk-ins. I did not enjoy that morning. I did use the Thursday staffing number they left on the last page.
The board pack had three seasons drawn on one sheet. Our warehouse in the industrial zone finally stopped ordering as if every month were October.
Journal
Field notes from the season
What to bring to a modeling scoping visit
A scoping visit on Melikishvili Street lasts up to ninety minutes. It is not a presentation. It is the hour in which we find out whether a forecast can be honest. Bring two years of the series if you have them — occupancy by room type, till tapes by week, warehouse counts, loan schedules. Bring last season’s plan even if you are ashamed of it. Bring one person who was there when a number was written down, not only the person who now owns the file.
Why three scenarios beat one brave number
Operators ask for one number because a bank, a partner, or a family table asked for one number. A single occupancy figure for August feels like leadership. It is often just a refusal to print the week that does not fit the story.
Reading a variance table without a statistician
The variance table in our packs has four columns a director can actually use: what was planned, what happened, the difference in the unit you already speak (rooms, bags, lari), and a short cause that is allowed to be weather, a cancelled bus, or “we do not know yet.”