How Batumi retailers misread tourist-season inventory

A shop on a tourist street sees people. It does not automatically see which SKUs leave, on which days, and how long a carton sits in the back once the buses thin out.

We have opened stock books in Batumi where October was still being ordered like late July because the pavement “felt” full. The till tapes, once laid out by week, showed a different trade: fewer baskets, different sizes, more locals buying the cheap line and ignoring the souvenir shelf that had been reordered “for the season.”

Three mistakes that keep repeating

Ordering from last year’s peak week as if it were a mood that lasts until October. Counting footfall at the door instead of lines on the receipt. Treating a delayed delivery as a reason to double the next one, which only moves the pile from the corridor to the week after the tourists have gone.

A seasonal forecast study for a retailer is mostly a demand curve by week and a sentence about what not to reorder. It is dull on purpose. Dull stockrooms lose less to dust.

If you already know the SKU that always remains, write that on the brief. We will still ask for the tapes. Memory is loyal to the crowded hour.